MAR26 is now the front month NYMEX contract for HH natural gas. The FEB26 contract closed at $6.029/MMBtu, short covering on Monday caused the price to spike over $7.24/MMBtu.
Trading Economics:
HH natural gas
US natural gas futures (MAR26) fell more than 2.5% to $3.71 per MMBtu as warmer weather forecasts (keep in mind that "warmer" is a relative term. It is still VERY COLD) and the return of some frozen wells eased supply concerns.
> Outlooks from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration show temperatures turning milder from the first week of February, reducing expected heating demand.
> Output in the Lower 48 was on track to rise to about 93.5 bcfd after dropping to two-year lows of 92.4-92.5 bcfd over the weekend, when roughly 50 bcfd of production was taken offline by frozen wellheads. < I expect well freeze offs and pipeline weather related issues to keep over 30 Bcfpd offline until early next week as another blast of very cold air will be hitting Appalachia in two days.
LNG feedgas flows are also recovering, set to increase to around 13.7 bcfd after falling to a one-year low of 11.6 bcfd on Monday, reinforcing expectations of improving supply conditions. < Exxon's Golden Pass LNG export facility is set to come online in March with design capacity of 2.2 Bcf per day. We should see LNG exports setting new records (over 20 Bcfpd) in Q2 2026.
Celsius Energy is forecasting that over a TCF will be drained from U.S. natural gas storage for the 28 days ending February 13th.
See for yourself here: https://www.celsiusenergy.net/
WTI crude oil
WTI crude oil futures (MAR26) moved above $63 per barrel on Wednesday, following a nearly 3% gain in the previous session that pushed prices to an almost four-month high, driven by supply disruptions. < Up 8.7% YTD.
> A severe winter storm cut US crude production by up to 2 million barrels per day, about 15% of national output, and temporarily halted Gulf Coast exports, as energy infrastructure and power grids came under strain. Icy and wet conditions across parts of the South are expected to delay restarts.
> Traders are also keeping a close eye on the US military buildup in the Middle East and the heightened risk of potential action against Iran.
> Adding further support, API data showed US crude inventories fell by 0.25 million barrels last week, defying expectations for a 1.45 million-barrel build.
> Meanwhile, the US dollar slid to its lowest level in nearly four years, boosting the appeal of dollar-denominated commodities to buyers.
Oil & Gas Prices - Jan 28
Oil & Gas Prices - Jan 28
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Oil & Gas Prices - Jan 28
Trading Economics:
WTI crude oil futures (MAR26) rose to around $63.50 per barrel on Wednesday afternoon, the highest level in four months, as geopolitical risk premiums increased following renewed US threats against Iran.
> President Donald Trump warned of further attacks and urged Tehran to negotiate, raising concerns over potential disruptions to Iranian oil supplies.
The escalation helped keep oil prices on a strong footing at the start of the year, with futures up more than 10% this month despite forecasts of a supply glut. < There is NO EVIDENCE of an oil GLUT in the U.S.
> Trump also said a large US naval presence had been deployed to the Middle East, reinforcing perceptions of rising regional tension. Diplomatic responses followed, with Iran and Qatar calling for dialogue and Saudi Arabia stating its territory would not be used for operations against Tehran, but uncertainty around the situation continued to support prices.
> Meanwhile, EIA data showed US crude stocks fell by 2.3 million barrels last week, compared with market expectations for a 1.75 million-barrel build.
US natural gas futures swung between small gains and losses with the MAR26 contract (now the front month) closing at around $3.75 per MMBtu as warmer weather forecasts and the return of some frozen wells eased supply concerns.
> Outlooks from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration show temperatures turning milder from the first week of February, reducing expected heating demand. < "milder" compared to the last five days, but still colder than normal for this time a year + plus a MAJOR WINTER STORM is now expected to run up the East Coast this weekend.
> Last week U.S. natural gas production was over 105 Bcfpd. Output in the Lower 48 was on track to rise to about 93.5 Bcfpd after dropping to two-year lows of 92.4-92.5 Bcfpd over the weekend, when roughly 50 Bcfpd of production was taken offline by frozen wellheads.
> LNG feedgas flows are also recovering, set to increase to around 13.7 bcfd after falling to a one-year low of 11.6 Bcfpd on Monday, reinforcing expectations of improving supply conditions. < LNG exports are expected to ramp up to 20 Bcfpd in April as Exxon's Golden Pass export facility comes online in March.
WTI crude oil futures (MAR26) rose to around $63.50 per barrel on Wednesday afternoon, the highest level in four months, as geopolitical risk premiums increased following renewed US threats against Iran.
> President Donald Trump warned of further attacks and urged Tehran to negotiate, raising concerns over potential disruptions to Iranian oil supplies.
The escalation helped keep oil prices on a strong footing at the start of the year, with futures up more than 10% this month despite forecasts of a supply glut. < There is NO EVIDENCE of an oil GLUT in the U.S.
> Trump also said a large US naval presence had been deployed to the Middle East, reinforcing perceptions of rising regional tension. Diplomatic responses followed, with Iran and Qatar calling for dialogue and Saudi Arabia stating its territory would not be used for operations against Tehran, but uncertainty around the situation continued to support prices.
> Meanwhile, EIA data showed US crude stocks fell by 2.3 million barrels last week, compared with market expectations for a 1.75 million-barrel build.
US natural gas futures swung between small gains and losses with the MAR26 contract (now the front month) closing at around $3.75 per MMBtu as warmer weather forecasts and the return of some frozen wells eased supply concerns.
> Outlooks from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration show temperatures turning milder from the first week of February, reducing expected heating demand. < "milder" compared to the last five days, but still colder than normal for this time a year + plus a MAJOR WINTER STORM is now expected to run up the East Coast this weekend.
> Last week U.S. natural gas production was over 105 Bcfpd. Output in the Lower 48 was on track to rise to about 93.5 Bcfpd after dropping to two-year lows of 92.4-92.5 Bcfpd over the weekend, when roughly 50 Bcfpd of production was taken offline by frozen wellheads.
> LNG feedgas flows are also recovering, set to increase to around 13.7 bcfd after falling to a one-year low of 11.6 Bcfpd on Monday, reinforcing expectations of improving supply conditions. < LNG exports are expected to ramp up to 20 Bcfpd in April as Exxon's Golden Pass export facility comes online in March.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group