During the week ending December 12th the Sweet 16 lost 5.72% and is now down 6.17% YTD, not counting dividends or the gain on Veren we harvested earlier this year.
The S&P Index lost 0.73% during the week and is now up 16.08% YTD.
Devon Energy (DVN) is the only Sweet 16 stock to move a few cents higher last week.
The Sweet 16 pullback is all related to the decline in oil and gas prices and the continuing uncertainty of where oil prices are headed.
Solaris Energy Infrastructure (SEI) declined 14% on Friday with no news to explain the large pullback. SEI has very high trading volume (almost 10% of the outstanding shares traded on Friday) and it will remain a high beta stock because it is now considered more of an AI related company. SEI builds and installs gas-fired power plants for AI Data Center. There are a lot of Day Traders working this one. Since nothing changed, "Buy the Dips" is my advice.
My current valuation of SEI is $57/share. The most recently updated price target submitted to TipRanks was on December 3 from David Arcaro, an analyst from Morgan Stanley, who initiated a new BUY rating with a price target of $68.
You can find updated profiles and forecast model for each of the Sweet 16 on the EPG website. Just click on the Sweet 16 tab.
On Tab 2 of the Sweet 16 Summary Spreadsheet (with 3 tabs) I now show my operating cash flow per share (CFPS) forecast for 2026 for each company.
Looking forward, there are six of the Sweet 16 trading below 3X 2026 CFPS. 3X is a VERY CONSERVATIVE valuation multiple for these high-quality growth companies that are all free cash flow positive and they have a lot of "Running Room". Antero Resources (AR) is the only Sweet 16 company that does not pay dividends.
My stock valuations are all based on what I believe are appropriate multiple of their operating cash flow per share CFPS. Based on December 12th closing prices and my 2026 CFPS forecast, the average stock price is just 3.66X CFPS. In my opinion, companies of this quality should be trading for 6X CFPS. SEI is the only above 6X CFPS, but it is now a "Special Situation AI Stock" that deserves a higher multiple.
Civitas Resources (CIVI) closed on December 12 at $29.33, which is just 0.97X my 2026 CFPS forecast of $30.38. CIVI will be merging into SM Energy (SM) in an all-stock deal that is expected to close in March, 2026. < My updated valuation of CIVI as a stand alone company is $60/share.
SM Energy (SM) closed on December 12 at $18.82, which is just 1.04X my proforma 2026 CFPS forecast of $18.82. < My updated proforma valuation if SM is $45/share.
Crescent Energy (CRGY) closed on December 12 at $9.40, which is just 1.29X my proforma 2026 CFPS forecast of $7.31. Vital Energy (VTLE) will be merging into CRGY in an all-stock deal that is expected to close within a few weeks. It will become the 9th largest independent upstream oil & gas company and it should get a big revenue boost from rising natural gas prices. < My updated proforma valuation of CRGY is $24/share.
Northern Oil & Gas (NOG), which announced accretive acquisitions from Antero Resources (AR) and Antero Midstream (AM) on December 8th, closed at $22.61 on December 12 at $22.61. Trading at just 1.81X my proforma 2026 CFPS forecast of $12.48. NOG looks like a "Screaming Buy" to me because it pays a nice dividend $0.45/quarter (7.96% annual yield) and it has a lot of "Running Room" is several of the top oil & gas producing basins in North America. It has more than enough DCF to maintain dividends at the current rate. < My updated valuation is $42/share.
Matador Resources (MTDR) closed on December 8 at $44.25, which is just 2.44X my 2026 CFPS forecast of $18.17. Matador is an "Aggressive Growth" company that continues to report some of the best well results in the Permian Basin. < My updated valuation is $64/share.
Ovintiv (OVV) closed on December 8 at $40.34, which is just 2.87X my 2026 CFPS forecast of $$14.05. Ovintiv should be drawing more attention because of its production mix of 52% natural gas, 16% NGLs and 32% crude oil. My current valuation of $56/share is based on a very conservative multiple of 4X. Ovintiv is a large-cap with current production of ~626,000 Boepd.
Based on December 12 closing prices the Sweet 16 is trading at a 50.4% discount to "Fair Value" and 30.3% discount to First Call's current price targets.
What jumps out at me is that six of the Sweet 16 (CIVI, CRGY, FANG, MTDR, NOG and SM) closed on December 12th at share prices below book value. All six of them are profitable, free cash flow positive and they have plenty of "Running Room" to generate future growth.
Sweet 16 Update - Dec 13
Sweet 16 Update - Dec 13
Last edited by dan_s on Sun Dec 14, 2025 9:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Sweet 16 Update - Dec 13
This coming week I will focus my attention on our Small-Cap Growth Portfolio.
The best preforming stocks in Harry's (i.e. The Petroleum Economist) database of 84 publicly traded companies energy companies are Spartan Delta (SDE.TO) that is up 126.1% YTD and Journey Energy (JOY.TO) that is up 98.4% YTD.
Both of them are up because of the fantastic well results that Spartan Delta is reporting in the West Shale Basin Duvernay oil play. Spartan Delta also produces a lot of natural gas. Journey Energy's joint venture with Spartan Delta is the best thing to happen to the company in a decade.
You can find our recent profile on Spartan Delta under the Small-Caps tab on the EPG website.
We will be publishing an updated profile on Journey Energy in a few days.
InPlay Oil (IPO.TO) holds 12,367 acres with 100% working interest in the Huxley Area of the East Basin Duvernay where larger companies are reporting strong horizontal wells that are offsetting InPlay's leases. InPlay is focused on the development of their Pembina area where they have close to 200 low-risk high-return horizontal drilling locations. Several of InPlay's recent HZ wells have paid out in less than six months. If oil prices do rebound InPlay might get some bids on the Duvernay acreage.
Size matter in this business. Small-Caps have more risk, but they also have more upside.
Rubellite Energy (RBY.TO), up 15.6% YTD looks very promising to me. It has a solid base of production (12,122 Boepd in Q3 2025) and it will get a nice revenue boost if natural gas prices increase in Western Canada. RBY.TO closed at $2.35Cdn on December 12. My current valuation is $5.25Cdn using valuation multiple of just 4X operating CFPS. < Rubellite has increased production 97.7% YOY in 2023, 92.0% YOY in 2024, and they are on pace to 94.9% YOY in 2025. Rubellite's CEO will be speaking on a webinar at noon on Monday, December 15. I will be on the call and listening carefully.
The best preforming stocks in Harry's (i.e. The Petroleum Economist) database of 84 publicly traded companies energy companies are Spartan Delta (SDE.TO) that is up 126.1% YTD and Journey Energy (JOY.TO) that is up 98.4% YTD.
Both of them are up because of the fantastic well results that Spartan Delta is reporting in the West Shale Basin Duvernay oil play. Spartan Delta also produces a lot of natural gas. Journey Energy's joint venture with Spartan Delta is the best thing to happen to the company in a decade.
You can find our recent profile on Spartan Delta under the Small-Caps tab on the EPG website.
We will be publishing an updated profile on Journey Energy in a few days.
InPlay Oil (IPO.TO) holds 12,367 acres with 100% working interest in the Huxley Area of the East Basin Duvernay where larger companies are reporting strong horizontal wells that are offsetting InPlay's leases. InPlay is focused on the development of their Pembina area where they have close to 200 low-risk high-return horizontal drilling locations. Several of InPlay's recent HZ wells have paid out in less than six months. If oil prices do rebound InPlay might get some bids on the Duvernay acreage.
Size matter in this business. Small-Caps have more risk, but they also have more upside.
Rubellite Energy (RBY.TO), up 15.6% YTD looks very promising to me. It has a solid base of production (12,122 Boepd in Q3 2025) and it will get a nice revenue boost if natural gas prices increase in Western Canada. RBY.TO closed at $2.35Cdn on December 12. My current valuation is $5.25Cdn using valuation multiple of just 4X operating CFPS. < Rubellite has increased production 97.7% YOY in 2023, 92.0% YOY in 2024, and they are on pace to 94.9% YOY in 2025. Rubellite's CEO will be speaking on a webinar at noon on Monday, December 15. I will be on the call and listening carefully.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group