Fed Interest Rate Cuts are coming

[dan_s]

Below is a note from HFI Research. There are "Market Forces" (including IEA) that want oil prices and inflation low for as long as possible, so that the Fed will keep lowering interest rates. I am short-term bearish on crude oil prices, but long-term bullish because low oil prices will eventually lead to high oil prices. Low oil prices are keeping a lid on the exploration & development work that must be done to find the oil supplies we will need in the future. This world runs on the energy generated by oil, natural gas and coal. There is nothing that can change that fact.

"There are only 4 countries inside OPEC+ that are currently producing above peak production. As a matter of fact, if you look at the peak production achieved in most of these countries, 17 out of the 22 countries achieved peak crude production before 2020 (most of them are on terminal decline). In our view, the production capacity report will be the single biggest watershed moment for the global oil market in 2026, and we will explain why this will catapult the structural oil bull market." - HFI Research 12-3-2025

Lower interest will increase oil demand because a growing economy will need more oil.