Natural Gas Prices - Dec 6

[dan_s]

I see that the JAN26 NYMEX futures contract closed at $5.337/MMBtu on Friday.

This is all weather driven as Miss La Nina is going to send several major winter storms through the Great Lake region, which is the area that draws the most natural gas from storage for space heating.

Also, look for well freeze offs in North Dakota and Appalachia. < This is what will cause the much larger than normal draws from storage.

I am sitting in the Fort Lauderdale airport. We should be home by 4pm today.

The "staff" have several updated profiles ready for my review.

We also have the InPlay Oil luncheon in Houston on Tuesday.

[dan_s]

Propane price up 14.8% in the month, which is very good news for AR, EQT and RRC.

CRGY + VTLE merger and SM + CIVI merger look much better with higher natural gas and NGL prices. CRGY and SM still trade at less than 50% of my valuations.

[dan_s]

Based on the current CelsiusEnergy forecast at this link: https://www.celsiusenergy.net/ on December 26th the surplus to the 5-year average will be down to 11 Bcf. So, my WAG a month ago that the 5-year surplus would be wiped out by year-end is now looking like a good guess.

My new WAG is that Ngas storage will be at more than a 100 Bcf deficit to the 5-year average by the end of January.

Demand for U.S. natural gas is MUCH HIGHER than it was five years ago.