Oil & Gas Prices - April 17

[dan_s]

Price volatility at the front of NYMEX strip for WTI will increase as expiration date of the front month contract (MAY26) draws near. The Paper Traders that are long the contract must close their positions or take physical delivery at Cushing, OK. Traders will react to each Trump post and headline about the War in Iran.

Trading Economic
WTI Oil
WTI crude futures slipped toward $91 per barrel on Friday morning, retreating after a 3.7% gain in the prior session as President Donald Trump struck an optimistic tone about the chances of a lasting US-Iran ceasefire.
> He said Tehran had agreed to key terms, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz, though Iran has not confirmed this.
> Officials suggest a full deal could take up to six months, with calls to extend the current truce.
> The conflict, nearing 50 days, has triggered a major supply shock, with Iranian restrictions and a US naval blockade keeping flows through Hormuz near a standstill.
> Trump said a deal could come soon, but left room to extend talks if needed.
> Meanwhile, a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon may help ease regional tensions.
> Disruptions have reshaped trade flows, with US crude exports surging to near-record levels as Europe and Asia seek alternatives, pushing the US close to net-exporter status for the first time since World War Two. < Rising exports and the summer driving season approaching should cause U.S. inventories of crude oil to decline. If U.S. gasoline prices surge higher, it will increase political pressure on Team Trump.

HH Natural Gas
US natural gas futures rose to $2.68 per MMBtu, supported by a recent drop in output and expectations of stronger demand over the next two weeks, but were still close to their lowest level since October 2024.
> Average production fell by about 3.2 bcfd over the past four days to a preliminary 10-week low of 108.0 bcfd, driven largely by declines in Louisiana and Ohio.
> At the same time, flows to major US LNG export terminals increased to 18.9 bcfd in April so far, up from 18.6 bcfd in March and near record levels. < Exxon's Golden Pass LNG export facility is expected to be online soon. It will push U.S. LNG exports over 20 bcf per day.
> However, the Energy Information Administration reported a storage build of 59 billion cubic feet for the week ended April 10, exceeding forecasts and well above both last year’s increase and the five-year average. The larger build was attributed to mild weather limiting heating demand, with forecasts pointing to continued warmer-than-normal conditions through early May.

[dan_s]

Per EIA on April 16:

Working natural gas in storage was 1,970 Bcf as of Friday, April 10, 2026, according to EIA estimates.
This represents a net increase of 59 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 126 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 108 Bcf above the five-year average of 1,862 Bcf.
At 1,970 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

Just remember that comparing the storage level to the 5-year average is misleading because demand for U.S. natural gas is MUCH HIGHER than it was five years ago. In addition to Golden Pass coming online, Corpus Christi Three should have all 7 trains online by Q4 2026. These two new large facilities should push U.S. LNG export capacity up to 21.7 Bcfpd by YE 2026. That compares to U.S. export capacity of 14.9 Bcfpd at the end of 2024.

See Antero Resources' March 3 presentation slides on Natural Gas and NGL Fundamentals at the link below:
https://www.anteroresources.com/investors/presentations