Baytex Energy (BTE) Valuation Update - Apr 13

[dan_s]

At the time of this post BTE.TO was trading at 5.93Cdn per share, up 33% YTD.

Baytex has recently updated their presentation slide deck:
https://www.baytexenergy.com/content/uploads/2026/04/26-04-April-Presentation-8fab07a9.pdf

Slides 12 and 13 will show you why I believe it has a lot of upside for us.

Baytex sold their South Texas assets in December 2025 for $2.96Cdn million. Their balance sheet is now pristine.

Baytex's Q1 2026 production is expected to be ~66,000 Boepd. 61% of Baytex's production is heavy oil, which the U.S. needs a lot of since diesel cannot be made from the ultra-light shale oil.

My valuation for BTE.TO is now $7.00Cdn. That translates to $5.11US for BTE, which trades on the NYSE.

Baytex's Q1 2026 results will be the first full quarter since the South Texas sale. It should help me and other analysts gain more confidence in our models.

Based on my current model, Baytex should generate over $500Cdn million of free cash flow this year. Current dividends are only $66 million per year, so after dividends they will have a lot of free cash for their stock buybacks.

[dan_s]

Based on new information from Harry, I have made changes to Baytex's production mix, and I reposted the forecast model. My valuation stays at $7.00 for now, but I do think Baytex will report some very strong results this year, which should justify a higher valuation multiple.

Q1 2026 results will be the first full quarter since the sold the South Texas assets.