In the "Real World" oil prices are much higher - April 15

[dan_s]

The price of oil is more complicated than any one figure and depends on where you look.

The oil trade can be broadly divided into two distinct markets: physical sales and contracts for future oil deliveries, known as futures.

Since the start of the war and Iran’s effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, prices in these markets have diverged substantially – reflecting what analysts say is a growing mismatch between perceptions of supply and the reality on the ground.

Here is all you need to know about the growing split in the physical and on-paper oil markets:
https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/4/13/why-oil-prices-arent-what-you-think-and-what-it-means-for-global-supply

"While it is not unusual for spot and futures prices to differ, the gap between the two has widened well beyond what is typical since the conflict began."