Trading Economics
WTI Oil
WTI crude oil futures (MAY26) dropped below $93 per barrel on Tuesday, amid signs the US and Iran may resume talks, following Washington’s move to impose a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz.
> Discussions are underway to hold another round of negotiations before a two-week ceasefire expires, with reports suggesting talks could take place in Pakistan.
> The sides failed to reach an agreement after extended weekend negotiations, prompting Trump to announce a blockade on Iranian oil shipments.
> Saudi Arabia has urged the US to lift the blockade and return to diplomacy. Meanwhile, the IEA warned the conflict could erase global oil demand growth this year, marking the first annual decline since the pandemic, while noting prices may not yet reflect the scale of the disruption.
> The war has damaged energy infrastructure and severely restricted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with an OPEC+ report showing output fell by 7.9 million barrels per day in March.
MY TAKE:
1. Yesterday's IEA Oil Market Report sure did not look bearish for oil prices. Yes, demand for oil-based products is down because in some areas of the world there is rationing or no gasoline or diesel is available to buy.
2. The odds of negotiated peace agreement being signed before the two-week ceasefire expires looks like "slim and none" to me. Do you think the current regime in Iran is going to agree to an unconditional surrender?
3. Last but not least, the NYMEX futures strip is not a forecast. Some Paper Traders are moving to the sidelines because the physical global oil market is in "unchartered waters". Big moves at the front of the strip are triggered by stop loss orders being triggered when the markets open or even before they open.
4. If the Strait of Hormuz is not open and unlikely to be fully opened anytime soon. Even if the Strait is opened, most to the tankers that get out will not be coming back until they are sure the war is over.
Bottomline: I expect the volatility to continue. One Iranian missile hitting a tanker will cause a short covering rally on the NYMEX strip.
Go here to see the actual forecast for WTI: https://longforecast.com/oil-price-today-forecast-2017-2018-2019-2020-2021-brent-wti#1
Oil & Gas Prices - Apr 14
Oil & Gas Prices - Apr 14
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Oil & Gas Prices - Apr 14
US natural gas futures fell to around $2.60 per MMBtu, their lowest level since late October 2024, as ample supply and subdued demand in US continued to weigh on prices.
> The EIA reported a 50 Bcf injection into storage for the week ended April 3, exceeding market expectations of a 46 Bcf build and accelerating from the previous week’s 36 Bcf increase.
> At the same time, mild weather forecasts across key US regions are keeping heating demand low, allowing utilities to continue adding gas to storage at an above-average pace for at least several more weeks.
> US natural gas prices remain largely insulated from Middle Eastern supply risks, supported by near-record domestic production, comfortable storage levels, and structural constraints on LNG export capacity.
> The EIA reported a 50 Bcf injection into storage for the week ended April 3, exceeding market expectations of a 46 Bcf build and accelerating from the previous week’s 36 Bcf increase.
> At the same time, mild weather forecasts across key US regions are keeping heating demand low, allowing utilities to continue adding gas to storage at an above-average pace for at least several more weeks.
> US natural gas prices remain largely insulated from Middle Eastern supply risks, supported by near-record domestic production, comfortable storage levels, and structural constraints on LNG export capacity.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Oil & Gas Prices - Apr 14
Update on the Strait of Hormuz:
WASHINGTON, April 14 (Reuters) - No ships have made it past a U.S. naval blockade of Iran's ports and coastal areas, and six merchant ships have followed orders to turn back, the U.S. military said on Tuesday, providing the first details on a day-old effort ordered by President Donald Trump after peace talks between the U.S. and Iran broke down.
The U.S. military has said that the blockade, which started on Monday, would only apply to ships going to or from Iran, including all Iranian ports on the Gulf and Gulf of Oman.
"During the first 24 hours, no ships made it past the U.S. blockade and six merchant vessels complied with direction from U.S. forces to turn around to re-enter an Iranian port on the Gulf of Oman," the U.S. military's Central Command said in the statement.
More than 10,000 U.S. military personnel, more than a dozen warships and dozens of aircraft were enforcing the blockade, it said.
"The blockade is being enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas," the statement added.
In a note sent to seafarers about the blockade on Monday, the U.S. military said: "Any vessel entering or departing the blockaded area without authorization is subject to interception, diversion, and capture."
The Monday note said the blockade would include all of Iran's coastline, but humanitarian shipments including food, medical supplies and other essential goods would be permitted, subject to inspection.
Trump announced the blockade following the breakdown of weekend talks to end the six-week-long war between the U.S. and Iran, sending oil prices back above $100 a barrel.
The blockade adds to uncertainty around how ships will transit the crucial waterway, used to move one-fifth of the world's oil and gas supplies.
WASHINGTON, April 14 (Reuters) - No ships have made it past a U.S. naval blockade of Iran's ports and coastal areas, and six merchant ships have followed orders to turn back, the U.S. military said on Tuesday, providing the first details on a day-old effort ordered by President Donald Trump after peace talks between the U.S. and Iran broke down.
The U.S. military has said that the blockade, which started on Monday, would only apply to ships going to or from Iran, including all Iranian ports on the Gulf and Gulf of Oman.
"During the first 24 hours, no ships made it past the U.S. blockade and six merchant vessels complied with direction from U.S. forces to turn around to re-enter an Iranian port on the Gulf of Oman," the U.S. military's Central Command said in the statement.
More than 10,000 U.S. military personnel, more than a dozen warships and dozens of aircraft were enforcing the blockade, it said.
"The blockade is being enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas," the statement added.
In a note sent to seafarers about the blockade on Monday, the U.S. military said: "Any vessel entering or departing the blockaded area without authorization is subject to interception, diversion, and capture."
The Monday note said the blockade would include all of Iran's coastline, but humanitarian shipments including food, medical supplies and other essential goods would be permitted, subject to inspection.
Trump announced the blockade following the breakdown of weekend talks to end the six-week-long war between the U.S. and Iran, sending oil prices back above $100 a barrel.
The blockade adds to uncertainty around how ships will transit the crucial waterway, used to move one-fifth of the world's oil and gas supplies.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Oil & Gas Prices - Apr 14
From OilPrice.com: Paper Oil Blinks While Physical Supply Tightens
By Tsvetana Paraskova - Apr 14, 2026, 12:00 PM CDT
> Oil market volatility is easing as traders adjust to geopolitical headlines, though prices still spike on major developments like failed U.S.–Iran talks and the Hormuz blockade.
> Despite calmer futures trading, the physical oil market remains extremely tight, with up to 10 million bpd trapped and spot prices surging far above futures.
> Ongoing blockades and supply disruptions are prolonging the crisis, pushing energy prices higher and delaying any meaningful market normalization.
Extreme volatility in crude futures prices has eased in recent days, although the market reacted with an 8% jump early Monday to the news of failed U.S.-Iran talks and the beginning of a U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Traders continue to react to any signal of how the worst-ever disruption energy market would unfold, but with uncertainty still very high, oil market participants bet on and try to predict movements.
The worst of the volatility may have passed, as investors and speculators appear to have exhausted their capacity to respond to the constantly shifting narratives of the Trump Administration, analysts say.
Past Peak Fear?
It appears that the oil market is gradually becoming used to the price swings in either direction that follow each post of U.S. President Donald Trump regarding Iran, the state of negotiations, or the navigability status of the Strait of Hormuz, the key oil chokepoint which handled about 20% of daily global oil and gas flows before the war.
Some say many of President Trump’s public posts are negotiation tactics and traders may have already moved from peak fear and peak panic and into calmer trade awaiting real outcomes.
“Markets have reached peak uncertainty,” Billy Leung, investment strategist at Global X ETFs, told CNBC earlier this week.
“The reaction function is no longer as extreme as before.”
These comments came hours after President Trump announced the U.S. Navy would blockade the Strait of Hormuz. The blockade has now begun.
But while it is part of whatever negotiating tactics the U.S. President is using, the U.S. blockade only exacerbates the real physical constraints to crude oil flows. These have already been severely hampered by the seven-week-long de facto closure of the world’s most important shipping lane for oil, gas, fuels, and fertilizer.
The blockade on top of the blockade and the Iranian threats that no port in the Persian Gulf would be safe if Iranian ports are blocked further push back the time when the Strait of Hormuz may reopen to free traffic and begin easing the increasingly tightening physical oil supply.
This would take months, even if the Strait of Hormuz opened to free traffic today.
As a result of the blocked traffic, global oil and fuel supply is shrinking and energy prices are soaring, including U.S. gasoline prices that are now more than $1 per gallon more expensive than seven weeks ago.
The U.S. blockade now poses a key question to analysts, policy makers, and war decision makers: “does a closed Strait hurt Iran faster than it hurts the global economy?” Erik Meyersson, Chief EM Strategist at SEB Bank wrote in a Monday note.
Moreover, the U.S. blockade raises the value of keeping the Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen out of the war, Meyersson said.
The Houthis in the past two years have hit commercial vessels in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait – the only route for Saudi crude to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and for the Suez Canal to remain open to traffic.
So far in this war, they have kept a low profile and have not moved to impede vessel traffic off Yemen’s coast. But no one can predict with any certainty that the Houthis will stay out of the mess in the Middle East.
“Both the US and Iranian sides have once again signalled the extent of their respective entrenched positions,” Meyersson noted.
“As such, given the time constraints and likely ongoing military preparations on both sides, absent a diplomatic breakthrough, the road to continued warfare remains open.”
Geopolitics Vs. Supply Crunch
Oil futures traders are betting on how they believe the conflict would unfold, hoping for the best but wary of the worst. Still, they are a bit better prepared to handle all the conflicting signals they are being given by the hour.
Not prepared are the physical crude markets, where prices have soared to near all-time highs, including compared to the 2008 price rally just before the financial crisis. < In June of 2008, WTI peaked at over $147/bbl.
The sharp decline in crude futures last week was likely primarily driven by an overcrowded long position, rather than any meaningful easing in underlying fundamentals, which continue to point to a tightening physical market, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said on Monday.
Crude futures were trading slightly lower than $100 per barrel as of Tuesday morning. But the price of physical crude for immediate delivery has soared amid the supply constraints and is about $40 per barrel more expensive than the futures.
Brent futures may have sunk below $100 per barrel, but constraints are intensifying amid the supply shock, with the physical price of a key North Sea blend, Forties, surging last week to a record high of as much as $147 per barrel.
The surge in physical crude prices reflects the massive supply shock, with about 10 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude trapped in the Strait of Hormuz and unable to go to refiners.
The huge $50 a barrel premium of the physical crude over the futures prices signals that the real oil supply shock is enormous, even if the sentiment on the futures market is tentatively hopeful that there is still a way to resolve the Middle East crisis soon.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
By Tsvetana Paraskova - Apr 14, 2026, 12:00 PM CDT
> Oil market volatility is easing as traders adjust to geopolitical headlines, though prices still spike on major developments like failed U.S.–Iran talks and the Hormuz blockade.
> Despite calmer futures trading, the physical oil market remains extremely tight, with up to 10 million bpd trapped and spot prices surging far above futures.
> Ongoing blockades and supply disruptions are prolonging the crisis, pushing energy prices higher and delaying any meaningful market normalization.
Extreme volatility in crude futures prices has eased in recent days, although the market reacted with an 8% jump early Monday to the news of failed U.S.-Iran talks and the beginning of a U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Traders continue to react to any signal of how the worst-ever disruption energy market would unfold, but with uncertainty still very high, oil market participants bet on and try to predict movements.
The worst of the volatility may have passed, as investors and speculators appear to have exhausted their capacity to respond to the constantly shifting narratives of the Trump Administration, analysts say.
Past Peak Fear?
It appears that the oil market is gradually becoming used to the price swings in either direction that follow each post of U.S. President Donald Trump regarding Iran, the state of negotiations, or the navigability status of the Strait of Hormuz, the key oil chokepoint which handled about 20% of daily global oil and gas flows before the war.
Some say many of President Trump’s public posts are negotiation tactics and traders may have already moved from peak fear and peak panic and into calmer trade awaiting real outcomes.
“Markets have reached peak uncertainty,” Billy Leung, investment strategist at Global X ETFs, told CNBC earlier this week.
“The reaction function is no longer as extreme as before.”
These comments came hours after President Trump announced the U.S. Navy would blockade the Strait of Hormuz. The blockade has now begun.
But while it is part of whatever negotiating tactics the U.S. President is using, the U.S. blockade only exacerbates the real physical constraints to crude oil flows. These have already been severely hampered by the seven-week-long de facto closure of the world’s most important shipping lane for oil, gas, fuels, and fertilizer.
The blockade on top of the blockade and the Iranian threats that no port in the Persian Gulf would be safe if Iranian ports are blocked further push back the time when the Strait of Hormuz may reopen to free traffic and begin easing the increasingly tightening physical oil supply.
This would take months, even if the Strait of Hormuz opened to free traffic today.
As a result of the blocked traffic, global oil and fuel supply is shrinking and energy prices are soaring, including U.S. gasoline prices that are now more than $1 per gallon more expensive than seven weeks ago.
The U.S. blockade now poses a key question to analysts, policy makers, and war decision makers: “does a closed Strait hurt Iran faster than it hurts the global economy?” Erik Meyersson, Chief EM Strategist at SEB Bank wrote in a Monday note.
Moreover, the U.S. blockade raises the value of keeping the Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen out of the war, Meyersson said.
The Houthis in the past two years have hit commercial vessels in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait – the only route for Saudi crude to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and for the Suez Canal to remain open to traffic.
So far in this war, they have kept a low profile and have not moved to impede vessel traffic off Yemen’s coast. But no one can predict with any certainty that the Houthis will stay out of the mess in the Middle East.
“Both the US and Iranian sides have once again signalled the extent of their respective entrenched positions,” Meyersson noted.
“As such, given the time constraints and likely ongoing military preparations on both sides, absent a diplomatic breakthrough, the road to continued warfare remains open.”
Geopolitics Vs. Supply Crunch
Oil futures traders are betting on how they believe the conflict would unfold, hoping for the best but wary of the worst. Still, they are a bit better prepared to handle all the conflicting signals they are being given by the hour.
Not prepared are the physical crude markets, where prices have soared to near all-time highs, including compared to the 2008 price rally just before the financial crisis. < In June of 2008, WTI peaked at over $147/bbl.
The sharp decline in crude futures last week was likely primarily driven by an overcrowded long position, rather than any meaningful easing in underlying fundamentals, which continue to point to a tightening physical market, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said on Monday.
Crude futures were trading slightly lower than $100 per barrel as of Tuesday morning. But the price of physical crude for immediate delivery has soared amid the supply constraints and is about $40 per barrel more expensive than the futures.
Brent futures may have sunk below $100 per barrel, but constraints are intensifying amid the supply shock, with the physical price of a key North Sea blend, Forties, surging last week to a record high of as much as $147 per barrel.
The surge in physical crude prices reflects the massive supply shock, with about 10 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude trapped in the Strait of Hormuz and unable to go to refiners.
The huge $50 a barrel premium of the physical crude over the futures prices signals that the real oil supply shock is enormous, even if the sentiment on the futures market is tentatively hopeful that there is still a way to resolve the Middle East crisis soon.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group