Energy Prospectus

dan_s

FWIW, which is not much, here are the Highlights of the IEA's monthly "Oil Market Report". Global oil demand is set to rise by 830 kb/d in 2025 amid an improving macroeconomic and trade outlook. These brighter prospects extend to our 2026 forecast, which we have upgraded by 90 kb/d, to 860...

dan_s

At the time of this post HME.V was trading at $2.03Cdn and HMENF was trading at $1.49US. My current valuation of HME.V is $2.70Cdn, which translates to $1.92US for HMENF. I have finished reviewing Nataly's updated profile on Hemisphere. She did her usual great job, so I didn't need to add much beyon...

dan_s

> It is expected that China will add over 90 GW of coal power in 2025, a new coal plant every four days. > 2/3 of all energy in China is coal sourced, meaning 2/3 of their world leading electric vehicles are powered by coal. > China’s power market is more than 2X larger than the next largest country...

dan_s

In December and January the weather forecasts for the eastern half of the U.S. are the primary driver of where the front month NYMEX contract (the price you see in the news) trades each day. On a percentage basis, NYMEX contracts for HH natural gas are much more volatile than oil prices. Note from H...

dan_s

By Phil Flynn On December 11, 2025 - 11:02 AM · In Market Commentaries, Phil Flynn Energy Report Oil prices surged yesterday after President Trump announced that the U.S. had seized an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela, stating it was for a very good reason. While the specific reason has not yet...

dan_s

IEA will keep tightening up their forecast of how much surplus supply there is. Here is why. Dec 11 (Interfax) - OPEC+ countries boosted oil production by 85,000 barrels per day month-on-month to 37.625 million bpd in November, though lagged the plan by 505,000 bpd, according to OPEC data . OPEC cou...

dan_s

Working gas in storage was 3,746 Bcf as of Friday, December 5, 2025, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 177 Bcf from the previous week. < 89 Bcf larger draw than the 5-year average . Stocks were 28 Bcf less than last year at this time and 103 Bcf above the five-year averag...

dan_s

https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html Global oil demand will rise by about 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) next year, supported by solid economic growth, OPEC said in its monthly report on Thursday, keeping its demand forecasts unchanged from last month. Unlike IEA, investment banks...

dan_s

The International Energy Agency on Thursday said global oil supply fell by 610 kb/d in November, extending the decline from September’s record of 109 mb/d to 1.5 mb/d. OPEC+ accounted for over three-quarters of the total decrease, led by sanctions-hit Russia and Venezuela. Russian oil exports declin...

dan_s

Watch this forecast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2CpMxTMvFzk Well freeze offs in the Williston Basin (North Dakota) for sure and possible in Appalachia. See temperatures forecast for Pittsburg, which is right in the middle of the Marcellus Shale play. https://www.wunderground.com/forecast/us/pa/...

dan_s

On December 10th I spent two more hours going over my forecast/valuation model for NOG and I have lowered my current valuation from $45 to $42 just because of the additional debt that NOG will be taking on to close the Utica Shale Acquisitions from Antero Resources (AR) and Antero Midstream (AM). Th...

dan_s

This is why WTI oil should be heading back to $60/bbl: The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point Wednesday, in an effort to support a weakening job market. But stubborn inflation and delayed economic data complicated the decision, leading to more-than-usua...

dan_s

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending December 5, 2025 U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.9 million barrels per day during the week ending December 5, 2025, which was 17 thousand barrels per day less than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 94.5% of their opera...

dan_s

dan_s

At the time of this post AR was trading for $37.23 I have updated my forecast/valuation model for the two large transactions which AR announced on December 8. My current valuation increases by $5 to $47 per share. TipRanks: Five highly respected energy sector analysts have updated their price target...

dan_s

After the markets closed on Tuesday, API data showed a 4.8-million-barrel decline in US crude inventories last week, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose.

dan_s

Exxon has discovered a new proppant that will make horizontal shale wells much more profitable.

Watch this short video: https://youtu.be/t8Y7VLcqln0?si=5mD1m89yCuCVzqAR

dan_s

BlazeMedia: 5 truths the climate cult can’t bury any more by Dan Doyle December 05, 2025 The cult's ‘green future’ runs on diesel, coal, and lies — and every blackout, bailout, and broken promise exposes the con. “Peak oil” isn’t real. “Energy transition” isn’t happening. And the people claiming ot...

dan_s

Trading Economics Copper futures in the US slipped to around $5.30 per pound, retreating from four-month highs as investors weighed demand uncertainties from top consumer China. The nation's top leaders signaled that boosting domestic demand will be a priority in 2026, while taking a measured approa...

dan_s

Our next Houston luncheon is set for January 13th at Maggiano's on Post Oak Blvd. The CEO of Mundoro Capital, Teo Dechev will make a presentation about how bullish the copper mining sector potential is under the Trump Administration. Teo is one of the smartest women I've ever met. She is an expert o...

dan_s

My updated forecast model has been posted to the EPG website.

InPlay is a "Top Pick" in our High Yield Income Portfolio.

dan_s

Based on the new information that I got at today's EPG luncheon I have updated my forecast valuation model for IPO.TO. Only a few minor adjustments needed to be made. I have a HIGH level of confidence in my model. IPO.TO closed at $12.88Cdn today, up 31% YTD . < My current valuation stays at $17.00C...

dan_s

Below is a note from HFI Research. There are "Market Forces" (including IEA) that want oil prices and inflation low for as long as possible, so that the Fed will keep lowering interest rates. I am short-term bearish on crude oil prices, but long-term bullish because low oil prices will eve...

dan_s

Antero's Slides: https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_47848ae6de2609162abd0c61a6eea4ce/anteroresources/db/732/7807/pdf/Strategic+Transactions+12.08.2025+vF.pdf

See bottom of slide 4

dan_s

Trading Economics WTI Oil WTI crude oil futures traded around $59 per barrel on Tuesday after sliding 2% in the previous session, as expectations of a supply glut outweighed geopolitical risks. < This is the most advertised "Supply Glut" outside of a worldwide pandemic . > Investors are no...

dan_s

IPOOF is trading was trading at $9.30US when this was posted. < Up 34% YTD Based on 2 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for InPlay Oil Corp. in the last 3 months. The average price target is $11.99US with a high forecast of $13.13 and a low forecast of $10.85. The average price ta...

dan_s

Notes below are from HFI Research This morning, Antero Resources (AR) announced that it would acquire HG Energy, a privately held E&P with operations contiguous to AR’s core in West Virginia. AR is paying $2.8 billion for the assets, while divesting its non-core Ohio Utica assets for $800 millio...

dan_s

Watch this forecast > https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=njYha8OFfXE

Very low temperatures and wind chill will hit Appalachia (Ohio. PA and WV) this coming weekend (Dec 13 & 14)

dan_s

To get a better understanding of the impact to NOG of the Ohio Utica Shale Asset acquisition go through the slides at this link: https://noginc.com/investor-relations/events-and-presentations/default.aspx Infinity Natural Resources, Inc. (INR) will be the operator of the acquired assets. Neal Dingma...

dan_s

The updated profile and my updated forecast/valuation model for Viper Energy has been updated on the EPG website. You can find them under the High Yield Tab. Viper has a lot of things going for it, but #1 by a wide margin is the company's relationship with Diamondback Energy (FANG). Yesterday I spen...

dan_s

There will be big daily swings in the U.S. natural gas futures market. JAN26 is the gas price you see. The U.S. natural gas market is going to go from a surplus to a deficit to the 5-year average very soon. Hang tough and keep in mind that my forecast/valuation models are based on HH natural gas av...

dan_s

HIGHLIGHTS NOG to partner with Infinity Natural Resources (“Infinity”) to purchase the Ohio Utica assets (the “Utica Assets”) of Antero Resources Corporation and Antero Midstream Corporation (collectively, “Antero”) , for a combined unadjusted purchase price of $1.2 billion in cash (the “Purchase Pr...

dan_s

For NOG this deal adds a lot of high-quality "Running Room" in one of America's most valuable natural gas plays. ------------------------ Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NYSE: NOG) (the “Company” or “NOG”) today announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire a 49% stake ...

dan_s

As of 30 November 2025, EU natural gas storage levels had fallen to 75.35%, compared with 82.8% at the end of October, reflecting the intense start to the 2025–2026 heating season (which usually begins in late October). At this point, inventories now sit below the five-year average . Here's the good...

dan_s

Crescent has announced six asset sales exceeding $900 million year-to-date. The Company has recently closed its previously announced conventional Rockies and Barnett divestitures and expects the remainder of its announced non-core asset sales to close before year-end. Proceeds from these transaction...

dan_s

84 years ago in 1941, Japan attacked the U.S. navy base at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii getting America into World War II. Shortly after the war started my father at the age of 16 took a job on a truck assembly line in St. Louis. At the age of 18 he joined the navy. In less than a year the war was over. His...

dan_s

EPG members are invited to attend a luncheon on Wednesday, December 10 in Dallas at Ocean Prime. This luncheon is also open to non-members, so invite a friend to join you. Luncheon: 12 Noon Ocean Prime 2101 Cedar Springs Rd. Dallas, TX 75201 Register here > contact@goalcapital.net and just tell Dann...

dan_s

Based on the current CelsiusEnergy forecast at this link: https://www.celsiusenergy.net/ on December 26th the surplus to the 5-year average will be down to 11 Bcf. So, my WAG a month ago that the 5-year surplus would be wiped out by year-end is now looking like a good guess. My new WAG is that Ngas ...

dan_s

Propane price up 14.8% in the month, which is very good news for AR, EQT and RRC.

CRGY + VTLE merger and SM + CIVI merger look much better with higher natural gas and NGL prices. CRGY and SM still trade at less than 50% of my valuations.

dan_s

I see that the JAN26 NYMEX futures contract closed at $5.337/MMBtu on Friday. This is all weather driven as Miss La Nina is going to send several major winter storms through the Great Lake region, which is the area that draws the most natural gas from storage for space heating. Also, look for well f...

dan_s

If Russian or Venezuelan oil exports are curtailed in 2026, oil price will rise.

dan_s

Articles by Dr. Anas Alhajji that debunk the IEA's False Paradigm Related Links: Oil Inventories Flash Red: Crude, Gasoline, Distillates – All Critically Low Brazil Shatters Crude Export Records in October: A Short Note The Hype of Oil on Water Oil Market Update: Debunking the Bearish Narrative US C...

dan_s

Addressing The Elephant In The Room - Where The Hell Is The Oil Surplus? HFI Research on December 5 Q4 2025 is coming to a close soon, and there’s one thing all oil market participants must acknowledge: this quarter was not as oversupplied as initially thought. As a matter of fact, and let me be blu...

dan_s

I emailed you the slide deck that Don spoke from. It should also be available on the Hemisphere website.

We are in Nassau today, so I will be out until late this afternoon.

dan_s

A cold start to winter and record liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows have helped drive a strong rally in prices since mid-October, said analysts at Morgan Stanley, seeing further upside ahead. At 08:55 ET (13:55 GMT), natural gas prices fell 0.5% to $4.968 per million British thermal units, or MMBtu,...

dan_s

My current valuation of REPX is $42/share.

With improved balance sheet, my valuation multiple should increase.

dan_s

Working gas in storage was 3,923 Bcf as of Friday, November 28, 2025, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 12 Bcf from the previous week. < At least the next three weekly draws will be triple digits. Stocks were 18 Bcf less than last year at this time and 191 Bcf above the f...

dan_s

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/the-international-energy-agency-gets-realistic/ar-AA1REHPH

dan_s

I was not able to attend the luncheon. All I know is that there has yet to be any response from the polymer flood at Marsden. Send me an email and I will send you the slide deck that Don Simmons spoke from on Tuesday.

dmsteffens@comcast.net

dan_s

Doug Bartole, InPlay's CEO will be speaking at our Houston luncheon on Tuesday, December 9th. I will be opening with an update on my view of the oil & gas markets. You can register for the luncheon on the EPG website and guests are welcome to attend. Just email Sabrina at energyprospectus@gmail....

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